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Introduction
In an interview on January
21, 2004, Andrew Card, current White House Chief of Staff, commented that his
current tenure was longer than “the average of 22 months” for this
position. What is the average tenure
for this position? Is Andrew Card’s
statement true? If so, is it
significantly longer? How likely is
it Card will remain Chief of staff for the duration of President Bush’s term?
You will use your knowledge
of statistics to address these questions while using the internet to research
this very important political position and learn more about the people who
held this office.
As an
aide to the Deputy White House Chief of Staff, you are concerned that Andrew
Card’s statement could be misinterpreted or misquoted. In order to head off potential problems, you
decide to research this topic.
Upon
the completion of your study, you will write a letter to Andrew card
explaining your research and you will also address any possible explanations
for any unusual findings.
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 Search the internet to find the White
House Chiefs of Staff that served under each administration. It is unlikely you will find any before
the Eisenhower administration. Why might
this be? During your search, find
information about this office, its responsibilities and history.
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Make a table containing the Chiefs of
Staff, the President under which they served, their dates of tenure, and
the length of their tenure in months.
If you are savvy enough with the search engines, there can be extra
credit if you can narrow it down to the number of days served.
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Also, make a list of the URLs for the
websites you used as sources for any information you use.
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Use Fathom, Minitab, or TI-Interactive to
determine the center and spread of the length of the terms of the Chiefs of
Staff. Make an appropriate
graphical display of these data.
Test for normality. Discuss
your findings.
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What is the probability a Chief of Staff will
have a tenure at least as long as Andrew Card’s? What is the probability a Chief of Staff will serve 2 terms?
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Construct and appropriate confidence
interval for the mean length of service of a White House Chief of Staff.
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Perform the appropriate statistical test
to determine if Andrew Card’s tenure is unusually high.
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Summarize your findings in a report that
is thorough, interesting to read, and informative.
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Write a letter to the White House Chief of
Staff that describes the findings of your research. Mr. Card may not have a statistical
background so be sure to clearly explain your research using non- technical
terms.
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Tips
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Start with searching for lists of the
Chiefs of Staff. Look at MORE than
one list as some have missing information.
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Be careful when counting the months. For example, if Chief of Staff XYZ has
his term listed as 1/1973-1/77, he served for the entire term of that
president (remember, they are inaugurated in January following the
election). If you count all the
months you will have 49 months and he only served 48 months. Either count the first month and not the
last or count the last and not the first.
Whichever you do, BE CONSISTENT throughout your list.
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Unless you are doing this by days, ignore
the fact that many transitions probably occurred mid-month. Just accept this and note it as a
possible source of error.
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If a president only had 2 Chiefs of staff,
then you know when the first ones term began and the second one ended. Just worry about the transition
month. Sometimes searching for BOTH
names will be quicker.
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Your
grade will be based on two items:
Report summarizing your research
findings (50%)
Letter to Andrew Card (50%)
Click
here for Grading Rubric.
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Conclusion
You have just used
statistics to research a completely non-mathematical topic. Hopefully you have gained insight into
the many uses of statistics both inside and outside the math
classroom. Remember, every time you
hear numbers and statistics thrown around, ask yourself “What are they
saying?” and “Do the numbers REALLY support this?”
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Objectives
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Grade Level/Subject: AP/Adv. Statistics
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Georgia
Quality Core Curriculum (QCC) Objectives: 1, 2, 3, 7, 12, 13, 21, 24
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National
Educational Technology (NETS) Standards:
(all) 1, 2, 3, 5, 6; (9-12)
1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10
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Copyright © 2004
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